· Analysis updated 09:57 UTC
KDV vs Novosibirsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for KDV and 1.18 for Novosibirsk, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives KDV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
KDV win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
KDV home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Novosibirsk away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates KDV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for KDV and 1.18 for Novosibirsk, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.1%
- 0–16.8%
Recent form
KDV
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Izhevsk · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Novosibirsk · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Krylya Sovetov II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Orenburg II · 2-1 (W)
Novosibirsk
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Volgar Astrakhan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Bryansk · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodina Moskva II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaluga · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is KDV win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.