Aktepe Stadium · Referee Muhammet Alperen Copur, Türkiye · Analysis updated 15:04 UTC
Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Keçiörengücü and 0.80 for Ümraniyespor, a combined total of 2.41. That distribution gives Keçiörengücü the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Keçiörengücü win
56.8% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Keçiörengücü home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ümraniyespor away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Keçiörengücü to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 25% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Keçiörengücü and 0.80 for Ümraniyespor, a combined 2.41 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.5%
- 2–011.7%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–09.0%
Recent form
Keçiörengücü
- 2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bodrum FK · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sivasspor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanspor FK · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarıyer · 3-0 (W)
Ümraniyespor
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanspor FK · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarıyer · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bandırmaspor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Antalyaspor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pendikspor · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayserispor | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 26 |
| 2 | Bursaspor | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 3 | Iğdır FK | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | Keçiörengücü | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | Batman Petrolspor | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 6 | Mardin 1969 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Antalyaspor | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 8 | Sarıyer | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Muğlaspor | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Bandırmaspor | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 |
| 11 | Bodrum FK | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 12 | Sivasspor | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 13 | Fatih Karagümrük | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 14 | Esenler Erokspor | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 | Ümraniyespor | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 16 | Manisa F.K. | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 17 | Pendikspor | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 10 |
| 18 | Vanspor FK | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 5 |
| 20 | Boluspor | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -19 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Keçiörengücü win, at 56.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.