Kedus Giorgis vs Awassa Kenema Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Kedus Giorgis and 0.73 for Awassa Kenema, a combined total of 1.48. That distribution gives Kedus Giorgis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 32%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 32% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.75 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kedus Giorgis home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 32% / 37% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Kedus Giorgis and 0.73 for Awassa Kenema, a combined 1.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 19% and both teams to score at 27%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%.

Match result (1X2)

Kedus Giorgis win32%

Draw37%

Awassa Kenema win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

63%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals43%

Over 2.5 goals19%

Over 3.5 goals6%

Both teams to score27%

Correct score

0–022.9%
1–017.2%
0–116.6%
1–112.4%
2–06.4%

Recent form

Kedus Giorgis

2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Adama Kenema · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethiopia Bunna · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Negelle Arsi · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fasil Ketema · 1-0 (W)

Awassa Kenema

2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethiopian Medhin · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mekelakeya · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Adama Kenema · 2-3 (L)
2026-06-28T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mebrat Hayl · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	3	2	1	0	2	7
2	Bahardar	3	2	0	1	2	6
3	Mekelakeya	3	2	0	1	1	6
4	Negelle Arsi	3	1	2	0	3	5
5	Halaba Ketema	3	1	2	0	1	5
6	Adama Kenema	3	1	2	0	1	5
7	Ethiopian Medhin	2	1	1	0	2	4
8	Hadiya Hosaena	3	1	1	1	0	4
9	Mebrat Hayl	3	1	1	1	0	4
10	Sheger Ketema	3	1	1	1	0	4
11	Ethiopia Bunna	3	1	0	2	-3	3
12	Kedus Giorgis	3	0	2	1	-1	2
13	Awassa Kenema	3	0	2	1	-1	2
14	Fasil Ketema	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Welayta Dicha	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1	0	0	1
17	Sidama Bunna	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.