Kedus Giorgis vs Ethiopia Bunna Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Kedus Giorgis and 0.76 for Ethiopia Bunna, a combined total of 2.12. That distribution gives Kedus Giorgis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kedus Giorgis win

51.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.37 – 0.76

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kedus Giorgis home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ethiopia Bunna away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kedus Giorgis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 28% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Kedus Giorgis and 0.76 for Ethiopia Bunna, a combined 2.12 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Kedus Giorgis win51%

Draw28%

Ethiopia Bunna win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–016.3%
1–112.4%
0–012.0%
2–011.2%
0–19.1%

Recent form

Kedus Giorgis

2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Adama Kenema · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethiopia Bunna · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Negelle Arsi · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fasil Ketema · 1-0 (W)

Ethiopia Bunna

2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mebrat Hayl · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Negelle Arsi · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kedus Giorgis · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheger Ketema · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Welayta Dicha · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	3	2	1	0	2	7
2	Mebrat Hayl	4	2	1	1	1	7
3	Bahardar	3	2	0	1	2	6
4	Mekelakeya	3	2	0	1	1	6
5	Negelle Arsi	3	1	2	0	3	5
6	Halaba Ketema	3	1	2	0	1	5
7	Adama Kenema	3	1	2	0	1	5
8	Ethiopian Medhin	2	1	1	0	2	4
9	Hadiya Hosaena	3	1	1	1	0	4
10	Sheger Ketema	3	1	1	1	0	4
11	Ethiopia Bunna	4	1	0	3	-4	3
12	Kedus Giorgis	3	0	2	1	-1	2
13	Awassa Kenema	3	0	2	1	-1	2
14	Fasil Ketema	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Welayta Dicha	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1	0	0	1
17	Sidama Bunna	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kedus Giorgis win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.