· Analysis updated 08:02 UTC
Kedus Giorgis vs Hadiya Hosaena Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Kedus Giorgis and 0.96 for Hadiya Hosaena, a combined total of 2.02. That distribution gives Kedus Giorgis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kedus Giorgis home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kedus Giorgis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 31% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Kedus Giorgis and 0.96 for Hadiya Hosaena, a combined 2.02 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 40%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.1%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–013.3%
- 0–112.8%
- 2–07.4%
Recent form
Kedus Giorgis
- 2026-10-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheger Ketema · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Adama Kenema · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethiopia Bunna · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Negelle Arsi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni · 1-1 (D)
Hadiya Hosaena
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Negelle Arsi | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 2 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Mebrat Hayl | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Bahardar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Mekelakeya | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Welayta Dicha | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| 7 | Sheger Ketema | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Adama Kenema | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Halaba Ketema | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -5 | 5 |
| 10 | Ethiopian Medhin | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Hadiya Hosaena | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Kedus Giorgis | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Ethiopia Bunna | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 | Awassa Kenema | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Fasil Ketema | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 | Welwalo Adigrat Uni | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Gamo Chencha | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 | Sidama Bunna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.