· Analysis updated 10:31 UTC
Keith vs Aberdeen U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Keith and 1.64 for Aberdeen U21, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Keith the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Keith home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aberdeen U21 away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Keith to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 23% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Keith and 1.64 for Aberdeen U21, a combined 3.31 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.1%
Recent form
Keith
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dumbarton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Invergordon · 6-4 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Huntly · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Turriff United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stonehaven · 2-1 (W)
Aberdeen U21
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Elgin City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cove Rangers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Banks O' Dee · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ross County · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fraserburgh · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.