· Analysis updated 16:08 UTC
Keith vs Strathspey Thistle Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Keith and 1.55 for Strathspey Thistle, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Strathspey Thistle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.2% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Keith home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Strathspey Thistle away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–17.3%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
Keith
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brora Rangers · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Strathspey Thistle · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Banks O' Dee · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Deveronvale · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Buckie Thistle · 3-2 (W)
Strathspey Thistle
- 2026-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Nairn County · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dalbeattie Star · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Forres Mechanics · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Keith · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rothes · 7-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-25T20:00:00.000Z · Keith 0-2 Strathspey Thistle (Football League - Highland League)
- 2025-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · Keith 1-3 Strathspey Thistle (Football League - Highland League)
- 2025-04-09T19:00:00.000Z · Keith 1-4 Strathspey Thistle (Football League - Highland League)
- 2025-03-01T15:00:00.000Z · Keith 2-0 Strathspey Thistle (Football League - Highland League)
- 2024-03-09T14:00:00.000Z · Keith 0-1 Strathspey Thistle (Football League - Highland League)
- 2023-11-15T20:00:00.000Z · Keith 3-1 Strathspey Thistle (Football League - Highland League)
- 2023-04-12T19:00:00.000Z · Keith 1-0 Strathspey Thistle (Football League - Highland League)
- 2022-10-08T14:00:00.000Z · Keith 6-1 Strathspey Thistle (Football League - Highland League)
- 2022-01-15T15:00:00.000Z · Keith 5-1 Strathspey Thistle (Football League - Highland League)
- 2021-08-28T14:00:00.000Z · Keith 2-0 Strathspey Thistle (Football League - Highland League)
Football League - Highland League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brora Rangers | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 42 | 39 |
| 2 | Inverurie Loco Works | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | Formartine United | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 28 |
| 4 | Fraserburgh | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 26 |
| 5 | Banks O' Dee | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 25 |
| 6 | Clachnacuddin | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 23 |
| 7 | Huntly | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 |
| 8 | Strathspey Thistle | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 22 |
| 9 | Forres Mechanics | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 21 |
| 10 | Nairn County | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 20 |
| 11 | Buckie Thistle | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 19 |
| 12 | Turriff United | 15 | 6 | 1 | 8 | -1 | 19 |
| 13 | Deveronvale | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -3 | 18 |
| 14 | Keith | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 18 |
| 15 | Lossiemouth | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 18 |
| 16 | Invergordon | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -21 | 13 |
| 17 | Wick Academy | 15 | 3 | 0 | 12 | -27 | 9 |
| 18 | Rothes | 14 | 1 | 0 | 13 | -50 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.