· Analysis updated 06:12 UTC
KEK-u vs Vëllaznimi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for KEK-u and 1.64 for Vëllaznimi, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Vëllaznimi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
KEK-u home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vëllaznimi away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vëllaznimi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 37% / 23% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for KEK-u and 1.64 for Vëllaznimi, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.2%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
KEK-u
- 2026-05-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vëllaznimi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ramiz Sadiku · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-05-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Trepça Mitrovicë · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Prizreni · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-04-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Istogu · 1-1 (D)
Vëllaznimi
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vjosa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trepça'89 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferizaj · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Liria Prizren · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Prishtina e Re · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga E Pare table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prishtina e Re | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Liria Prizren | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 3 | Rilindja 1974 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Trepça'89 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Ferizaj | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 19 |
| 6 | Dinamo Ferizaj | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 7 | Suhareka | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 8 | Istogu | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 9 | 2 Korriku | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 | Vjosa | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Vëllaznimi | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 12 | FC Besa Peja | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Trepça Mitrovicë | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 11 |
| 14 | Ramiz Sadiku | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | KF Lepenci | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Kika | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -9 | 9 |
| 17 | Tefik Canga | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Mitrovica | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.