New Central Park · Analysis updated 02:38 UTC
Kelty Hearts vs Edinburgh City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Kelty Hearts and 1.79 for Edinburgh City, a combined total of 3.46. That distribution gives Edinburgh City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.4% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kelty Hearts home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Edinburgh City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Edinburgh City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 37% / 22% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Kelty Hearts and 1.79 for Edinburgh City, a combined 3.46 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–17.9%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.6%
Recent form
Kelty Hearts
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartans · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Montrose · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hearts U21 · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Edinburgh City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Clyde · 1-4 (L)
Edinburgh City
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stranraer · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Formartine United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee United II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kelty Hearts · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stirling Albion · 7-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stranraer | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Clyde | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | Elgin City | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 4 | Spartans | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Kelty Hearts | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 15 |
| 6 | Dumbarton | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 13 |
| 7 | Stirling Albion | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 12 |
| 8 | Edinburgh City | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Forfar Athletic | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Annan Athletic | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.