New Central Park · Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
Kelty Hearts vs Hearts U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.21 expected goals for Kelty Hearts and 0.99 for Hearts U21, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Kelty Hearts the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kelty Hearts win
65.0% probability
Expected goals
2.21 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kelty Hearts home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hearts U21 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kelty Hearts to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 19% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.21 goals for Kelty Hearts and 0.99 for Hearts U21, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–18.9%
- 3–07.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 14.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.90 | 32.7% | 34.9% | 2.87 | +2.2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.15 | 42.7% | 44.1% | 2.27 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.60 | 19.1% | 19.2% | 5.21 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.35 | 65.0% | 65.0% | 1.54 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 5.50 | 15.9% | 15.7% | 6.37 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 81.1% | 80.7% | 1.24 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.60 | 57.3% | 55.9% | 1.79 | -1.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.10 | 86.2% | 84.2% | 1.19 | -2.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Kelty Hearts
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartans · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Montrose · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hearts U21 · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Edinburgh City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Clyde · 1-4 (L)
Hearts U21
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ross County · 0-14 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Kelty Hearts · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Gala Fairydean Rovers · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-08-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Spartans · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Berwick Rangers · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · Kelty Hearts 3-5 Hearts U21 (Challenge Cup)
- 2025-11-11T19:45:00.000Z · Kelty Hearts 0-1 Hearts U21 (Challenge Cup)
- 2024-07-09T18:00:00.000Z · Kelty Hearts 2-5 Hearts U21 (Friendlies Clubs)
Challenge Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clydebank | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 2 | Ross County | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 12 |
| 3 | Airdrie United | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12 |
| 4 | Elgin City | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12 |
| 5 | Cove Rangers | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 |
| 6 | Peterhead | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| 7 | Alloa Athletic | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 8 | Queen of the South | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 9 | East Kilbride | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 10 | Stirling Albion | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | Edinburgh City | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 12 | St. Mirren U21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
| 13 | Hamilton Academical | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Montrose | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
| 15 | Celtic II | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 16 | Formartine United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 17 | Kelty Hearts | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 18 | Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Hearts U21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -11 | 9 |
| 20 | Annan Athletic | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| 21 | Spartans | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 22 | Aberdeen U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 23 | East Fife | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 24 | Forfar Athletic | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 25 | Berwick Rangers | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 7 |
| 26 | Dumbarton | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 7 |
| 27 | Stranraer | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 28 | Rangers U21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 29 | Clachnacuddin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 30 | Kilmarnock II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 31 | Banks O' Dee | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 4 |
| 32 | Fraserburgh | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 4 |
| 33 | Clyde | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 34 | Dundee United II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 35 | Cumbernauld Colts | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
| 36 | Gala Fairydean Rovers | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -12 | 2 |
| 37 | Cowdenbeath | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 0 |
| 38 | Dundee II | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 0 |
| 39 | Hibernian U21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 0 |
| 40 | Motherwell U21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kelty Hearts win, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.