New Central Park · Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Kelty Hearts vs Stranraer Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Kelty Hearts and 2.10 for Stranraer, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Stranraer the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Stranraer win
60.2% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 2.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kelty Hearts home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stranraer away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stranraer to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 19% / 21% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Kelty Hearts and 2.10 for Stranraer, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.4%
- 0–28.9%
- 0–18.5%
- 1–36.9%
Recent form
Kelty Hearts
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartans · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Montrose · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hearts U21 · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Edinburgh City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Clyde · 1-4 (L)
Stranraer
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Edinburgh City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs East Kilbride · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Berwick Rangers · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Elgin City · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dumbarton · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stranraer | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Clyde | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | Elgin City | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 4 | Spartans | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Kelty Hearts | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 15 |
| 6 | Dumbarton | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 13 |
| 7 | Stirling Albion | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 12 |
| 8 | Edinburgh City | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Forfar Athletic | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | Annan Athletic | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stranraer win, at 60.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.