· Analysis updated 12:23 UTC
Kempten vs Illertissen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Kempten and 1.79 for Illertissen, a combined total of 3.11. That distribution gives Illertissen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Illertissen win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Illertissen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Illertissen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 28% / 23% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.32 goals for Kempten and 1.79 for Illertissen, a combined 3.11 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–17.9%
- 0–27.1%
- 2–17.0%
Recent form
Kempten
- 2026-07-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Illertissen · 0-5 (L)
- 2024-05-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Türkspor Augsburg · 0-1 (L)
- 2024-05-22T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Türkspor Augsburg · 2-3 (L)
Illertissen
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayreuth · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Unterhaching · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Landsberg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Schwaben Augsburg · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Illertissen win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.