Stade Amahoro · Analysis updated 18:22 UTC
Kenya vs Estonia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Kenya and 1.06 for Estonia, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives Kenya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kenya win
59.1% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kenya home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Estonia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kenya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 21% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Kenya and 1.06 for Estonia, a combined 3.06 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–09.4%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Kenya
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guinea · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eritrea · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lesotho · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lesotho · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Grenada · 3-0 (W)
Estonia
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bulgaria · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Iceland · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lithuania · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Faroe Islands · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-30T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Rwanda · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FIFA Series table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulgaria | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 |
| 2 | Aruba | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Puerto Rico | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 4 | Rwanda | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 5 | Australia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Kazakhstan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Azerbaijan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 8 | Kenya | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Venezuela | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Finland | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Uzbekistan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Tanzania | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 13 | Indonesia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Guam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | US Virgin Islands | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | New Zealand | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Cameroon | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | China | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 19 | Chile | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 20 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 21 | Liechtenstein | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 22 | Sierra Leone | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 | Comoros | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 24 | Cape Verde Islands | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 25 | Gabon | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 26 | Estonia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 27 | Namibia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 28 | Trinidad and Tobago | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 29 | St. Lucia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 30 | Curaçao | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 31 | Grenada | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
| 32 | American Samoa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
| 33 | Macau | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | 0 |
| 34 | Solomon Islands | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kenya win, at 59.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.