Al Medina Stadium · Referee A. Kante · Analysis updated 15:26 UTC
Kenya W vs Algeria W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Kenya W and 1.60 for Algeria W, a combined total of 2.36. That distribution gives Algeria W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Algeria W win
57.6% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kenya W home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Algeria W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Algeria W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 18% / 25% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Kenya W and 1.60 for Algeria W, a combined 2.36 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.2%
- 0–212.2%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–29.2%
Recent form
Kenya W
- 2026-08-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Algeria W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Senegal W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lesotho W · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-06-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Zambia W · 1-1 (D)
Algeria W
- 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Malawi W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ivory Coast W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Kenya W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-30T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Africa Cup of Nations - Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Algeria W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Senegal W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Kenya W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| 1 | Ivory Coast W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | South Africa W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Tanzania W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Burkina Faso W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 1 | Zambia W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Nigeria W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Malawi W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Egypt W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -12 | 0 |
| 1 | Cameroon W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Ghana W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Mali W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Cape Verde W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Algeria W win, at 57.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.