· Analysis updated 06:56 UTC
Kerkennah vs Kalaâ Sport Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Kerkennah and 0.84 for Kalaâ Sport, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Kerkennah the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kerkennah win
66.4% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kerkennah home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kalaâ Sport away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kerkennah to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 20% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Kerkennah and 0.84 for Kalaâ Sport, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.7%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.4%
- 3–08.2%
Recent form
Kerkennah
- 2026-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs EM Mahdia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Hammam-Lif · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Hammam-Sousse · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Menzel Bourguiba · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Tataouine · 0-0 (D)
Kalaâ Sport
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kerkennah · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Jendouba Sport · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ksour Essef · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-28T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Redeyef · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Gabesien · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kerkennah win, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.