· Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
Kežmarok vs Lipany Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.81 expected goals for Kežmarok and 2.83 for Lipany, a combined total of 3.64. That distribution gives Lipany the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lipany win
78.9% probability
Expected goals
0.81 – 2.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lipany away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lipany to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 8% / 13% / 79% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.81 goals for Kežmarok and 2.83 for Lipany, a combined 3.64 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 52%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
21%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.5%
- 0–39.9%
- 1–28.5%
- 1–38.0%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Kežmarok
Lipany
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs MSK Tesla Stropkov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Spišská Nová Ves · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stará Ľubovňa · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slávia TU Košice · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Sabinov · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lokomotíva Košice | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 21 |
| 2 | Spartak Medzev | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Raslavice | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Stará Ľubovňa | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 5 | Lipany | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 17 |
| 6 | Poprad | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Partizán Bardejov | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Spišská Nová Ves | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | MSK Tesla Stropkov | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | Slávia TU Košice | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 11 | Snina | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Vranov nad Topľou | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 10 |
| 13 | Slovan Sabinov | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 6 |
| 14 | Kežmarok | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -21 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lipany win, at 78.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.