· Analysis updated 19:03 UTC
Kežmarok vs Stará Ľubovňa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.82 expected goals for Kežmarok and 2.89 for Stará Ľubovňa, a combined total of 3.71. That distribution gives Stará Ľubovňa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stará Ľubovňa win
79.6% probability
Expected goals
0.82 – 2.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stará Ľubovňa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 8% / 13% / 80% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.82 goals for Kežmarok and 2.89 for Stará Ľubovňa, a combined 3.71 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 53%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 80% with high confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
21%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.3%
- 0–39.9%
- 1–28.4%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–47.1%
Recent form
Kežmarok
Stará Ľubovňa
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Snina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Medzev · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Raslavice · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Poprad · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lipany · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lokomotíva Košice | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Spartak Medzev | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Raslavice | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 4 | Stará Ľubovňa | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 5 | Partizán Bardejov | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Spišská Nová Ves | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Lipany | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 18 |
| 8 | Poprad | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | MSK Tesla Stropkov | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Snina | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 | Slávia TU Košice | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Vranov nad Topľou | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 13 |
| 13 | Slovan Sabinov | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 14 | Kežmarok | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | -26 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stará Ľubovňa win, at 79.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.