KFC Uerdingen 05 vs Monheim Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for KFC Uerdingen 05 and 1.50 for Monheim, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives KFC Uerdingen 05 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

KFC Uerdingen 05 win

56.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.35 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

KFC Uerdingen 05 home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates KFC Uerdingen 05 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 20% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.35 goals for KFC Uerdingen 05 and 1.50 for Monheim, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 70%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

KFC Uerdingen 05 win57%

Draw20%

Monheim win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

2–18.8%
1–17.5%
3–16.9%
2–26.6%
2–05.9%

Recent form

KFC Uerdingen 05

2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sonsbeck · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SW Essen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Düsseldorf II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Scherpenberg · 6-1 (W)
2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SF Baumberg · 1-2 (L)

Monheim

2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Scherpenberg · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SF Baumberg · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Düsseldorf II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Holzheimer SG · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-30T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SC St. Tönis · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-12T14:00:00.000Z · KFC Uerdingen 05 2-1 Monheim (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2025-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · KFC Uerdingen 05 5-2 Monheim (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2023-05-13T16:00:00.000Z · KFC Uerdingen 05 2-0 Monheim (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2022-11-06T14:00:00.000Z · KFC Uerdingen 05 2-2 Monheim (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Schonnebeck	11	9	2	0	27	29
2	SSVg Velbert	11	9	0	2	14	27
3	Fortuna Düsseldorf II	11	6	3	2	12	21
4	SF Baumberg	11	5	4	2	3	19
5	Monheim	11	5	3	3	7	18
6	SC St. Tönis	11	5	3	3	5	18
7	Sonsbeck	11	4	5	2	4	17
8	Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.	11	5	2	4	0	17
9	BW Dingden	11	5	1	5	-1	16
10	Germania Ratingen	11	3	6	2	1	15
11	Solingen-Wald	11	5	0	6	-5	15
12	KFC Uerdingen 05	11	4	2	5	8	14
13	Wuppertaler SV	11	4	2	5	5	14
14	Scherpenberg	11	3	2	6	-10	11
15	Büderich	11	1	4	6	-17	7
16	Meerbusch	11	1	3	7	-14	6
17	SW Essen	11	1	3	7	-14	6
18	Holzheimer SG	11	1	1	9	-25	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is KFC Uerdingen 05 win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.