Samsung Vollurinn · Analysis updated 15:48 UTC
KFG vs Kári Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for KFG and 2.89 for Kári, a combined total of 4.36. That distribution gives Kári the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kári win
66.9% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 2.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
KFG home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kári to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 17% / 16% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for KFG and 2.89 for Kári, a combined 4.36 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 81% and both teams to score at 72%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.9%
- 1–37.6%
- 2–25.7%
- 2–35.5%
- 1–45.5%
Recent form
KFG
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Selfoss · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Vikingur Olafsiik · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dalvík / Reynir · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kormákur / Hvöt · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Hvíti riddarinn · 5-0 (W)
Kári
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Deild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haukar | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 47 |
| 2 | Selfoss | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 45 |
| 3 | Kári | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 27 | 42 |
| 4 | Dalvík / Reynir | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 31 |
| 5 | Vikingur Olafsiik | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | -8 | 31 |
| 6 | Fjolnir | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 30 |
| 7 | Fjardabyggd / Leiknir | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 29 |
| 8 | Kormákur / Hvöt | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 27 |
| 9 | Magni | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 25 |
| 10 | Thróttur Vogar | 22 | 7 | 2 | 13 | -9 | 23 |
| 11 | KFG | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | -20 | 22 |
| 12 | Hvíti riddarinn | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -26 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kári win, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.