KFG vs Selfoss Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for KFG and 2.85 for Selfoss, a combined total of 4.58. That distribution gives Selfoss the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Selfoss win

61.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.73 – 2.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

KFG home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Selfoss to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 22% / 17% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for KFG and 2.85 for Selfoss, a combined 4.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 83% and both teams to score at 77%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.

Match result (1X2)

KFG win22%

Draw17%

Selfoss win61%

Double chance 1X

39%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals67%

Both teams to score77%

Correct score

1–27.2%
1–36.9%
2–26.2%
2–35.9%
1–15.1%

Recent form

KFG

2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dalvík / Reynir · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kormákur / Hvöt · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Hvíti riddarinn · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir · 3-4 (L)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fjolnir · 1-4 (L)

Selfoss

2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Haukar · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Álftanes · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KFG · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Haukar · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Magni · 6-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Deild table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Haukar	22	15	2	5	23	47
2	Selfoss	22	13	6	3	19	45
3	Kári	22	11	9	2	27	42
4	Dalvík / Reynir	22	9	4	9	0	31
5	Vikingur Olafsiik	22	9	4	9	-8	31
6	Fjolnir	22	8	6	8	3	30
7	Fjardabyggd / Leiknir	22	9	2	11	6	29
8	Kormákur / Hvöt	22	7	6	9	4	27
9	Magni	22	7	4	11	-19	25
10	Thróttur Vogar	22	7	2	13	-9	23
11	KFG	22	7	1	14	-20	22
12	Hvíti riddarinn	22	3	8	11	-26	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Selfoss win, at 61.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.