· Analysis updated 15:55 UTC
Khaitan vs Burgan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Khaitan and 0.98 for Burgan, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Khaitan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.7% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Khaitan home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Khaitan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 30% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Khaitan and 0.98 for Burgan, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 42%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–111.9%
- 2–07.7%
Recent form
Khaitan
- 2026-08-20T17:10:00.000Z · A vs Shamiya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-17T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Sporty · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T17:25:00.000Z · H vs Burgan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-10T17:25:00.000Z · H vs Al Jazira · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-07T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Yarmouk · 0-0 (D)
Burgan
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 1 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.