· Analysis updated 18:02 UTC
Khatlon vs Istaravshan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Khatlon and 1.25 for Istaravshan, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Khatlon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Khatlon win
54.2% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Khatlon home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Istaravshan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Khatlon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 22% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Khatlon and 1.25 for Istaravshan, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–07.8%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Khatlon
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Istaravshan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Pomir · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Eskhata · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-06-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barki Tajik · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ravshan · 0-2 (L)
Istaravshan
- 2026-09-16T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Eskhata · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Barki Tajik · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Khatlon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Khujand · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Khosilot Farkhor · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Vysshaya Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Istiqlol | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 37 |
| 2 | Regar-TadAZ | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 37 |
| 3 | Khosilot Farkhor | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 34 |
| 4 | Barki Tajik | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 24 |
| 5 | CSKA Pomir | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 24 |
| 6 | Khujand | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | Ravshan | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Khatlon | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Eskhata | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -10 | 19 |
| 10 | Parvoz | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 15 |
| 11 | Sardor Tursunzoda | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Istaravshan | 17 | 0 | 6 | 11 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Khatlon win, at 54.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.