Kheybar Khorramabad vs Foolad FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Kheybar Khorramabad and 1.63 for Foolad FC, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Foolad FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Foolad FC win

55.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.85 – 1.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kheybar Khorramabad home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Foolad FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Foolad FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 20% / 25% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Kheybar Khorramabad and 1.63 for Foolad FC, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Kheybar Khorramabad win20%

Draw25%

Foolad FC win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

0–113.7%
1–111.6%
0–211.1%
1–29.4%
0–08.4%

Recent form

Kheybar Khorramabad

2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Esteghlal Khuzestan · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-14T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Persepolis FC · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-09T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Chadormalu SC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-07T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Nassaji Mazandaran · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Foolad FC · 2-0 (W)

Foolad FC

2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Esteghlal FC · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanat Naft · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Shams Azar Qazvin · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs ZOB Ahan · 0-0 (D)
2026-02-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Shams Azar Qazvin · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persepolis FC	9	6	2	1	14	20
2	Tractor Sazi	9	6	2	1	10	20
3	Esteghlal FC	10	5	5	0	9	20
4	Sepahan FC	9	5	2	2	7	17
5	Foolad FC	9	4	4	1	4	16
6	Aluminium Arak	10	3	5	2	3	14
7	Kheybar Khorramabad	10	3	5	2	2	14
8	Gol Gohar	10	4	1	5	1	13
9	Fajr Sepasi	9	3	4	2	-2	13
10	Chadormalu SC	10	3	4	3	-4	13
11	Nassaji Mazandaran	9	2	4	3	-2	10
12	Paykan	9	2	3	4	-3	9
13	Malavan	8	2	2	4	-4	8
14	ZOB Ahan	10	1	5	4	-4	8
15	Shams Azar Qazvin	9	1	4	4	-3	7
16	Sanat Naft	10	1	4	5	-10	7
17	Esteghlal Khuzestan	9	1	3	5	-9	6
18	Mes Shahr-e Babak	9	0	5	4	-9	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Foolad FC win, at 55.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.