Takhti Stadium · Analysis updated 16:31 UTC
Kheybar Khorramabad vs Persepolis FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Kheybar Khorramabad and 1.50 for Persepolis FC, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Persepolis FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Persepolis FC win
47.0% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kheybar Khorramabad home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Persepolis FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Persepolis FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 27% / 26% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Kheybar Khorramabad and 1.50 for Persepolis FC, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–08.2%
Recent form
Kheybar Khorramabad
- 2026-10-23T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Gol Gohar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Esteghlal Khuzestan · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Persepolis FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-09T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Chadormalu SC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Nassaji Mazandaran · 0-1 (L)
Persepolis FC
- 2026-10-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Sanat Naft · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ZOB Ahan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Esteghlal FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Malavan · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tractor Sazi · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persepolis FC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 2 | Sepahan FC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 20 |
| 3 | Tractor Sazi | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 4 | Esteghlal FC | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 20 |
| 5 | Foolad FC | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 6 | Aluminium Arak | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Kheybar Khorramabad | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Fajr Sepasi | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Gol Gohar | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Chadormalu SC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Paykan | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Malavan | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 | ZOB Ahan | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Sanat Naft | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 18 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -13 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Persepolis FC win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.