Takhti Stadium · Analysis updated 10:45 UTC
Kheybar Khorramabad vs Sepahan FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Kheybar Khorramabad and 1.30 for Sepahan FC, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Sepahan FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sepahan FC win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kheybar Khorramabad home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sepahan FC away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.1%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–09.9%
- 0–29.8%
Recent form
Kheybar Khorramabad
- 2026-10-23T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Gol Gohar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Esteghlal Khuzestan · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Persepolis FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-09T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Chadormalu SC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Nassaji Mazandaran · 0-1 (L)
Sepahan FC
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Esteghlal Khuzestan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanat Naft · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gol Gohar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Esteghlal FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tractor Sazi · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-06T13:00:00.000Z · Kheybar Khorramabad 0-1 Sepahan FC (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2025-12-21T13:00:00.000Z · Kheybar Khorramabad 3-1 Sepahan FC (Hazfi Cup)
- 2025-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · Kheybar Khorramabad 0-1 Sepahan FC (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2025-01-26T14:30:00.000Z · Kheybar Khorramabad 0-2 Sepahan FC (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2024-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · Kheybar Khorramabad 1-2 Sepahan FC (Persian Gulf Pro League)
- 2019-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · Kheybar Khorramabad 0-3 Sepahan FC (Hazfi Cup)
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persepolis FC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 2 | Sepahan FC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 20 |
| 3 | Tractor Sazi | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 4 | Esteghlal FC | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 20 |
| 5 | Foolad FC | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 6 | Aluminium Arak | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Kheybar Khorramabad | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Fajr Sepasi | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Gol Gohar | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Chadormalu SC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Paykan | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Malavan | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 | ZOB Ahan | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Sanat Naft | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 18 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -13 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sepahan FC win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.