· Analysis updated 10:44 UTC
Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs KDV Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Khimik Dzerzhinsk and 1.03 for KDV, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Khimik Dzerzhinsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Khimik Dzerzhinsk win
58.4% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Khimik Dzerzhinsk home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
KDV away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.7%
- 3–16.4%
Recent form
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Akron II · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs KDV · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylya Sovetov II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Akron II · 1-2 (L)
KDV
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Barnaul · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Akron II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2-0 KDV (Second League - Group 4)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2-1 KDV (Second League - Group 4)
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 0-1 KDV (Second League - Group 4)
- 2026-04-05T15:00:00.000Z · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2-3 KDV (Second League - Group 4)
- 2025-10-05T08:00:00.000Z · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1-2 KDV (Second League - Group 4)
- 2025-06-29T13:00:00.000Z · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1-0 KDV (Second League - Group 4)
Second League - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khimik Dzerzhinsk | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 56 |
| 2 | KDV | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 53 |
| 3 | Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 43 |
| 4 | Akron II | 22 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 32 |
| 5 | Krylya Sovetov II | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | -1 | 27 |
| 6 | Dinamo Barnaul | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -19 | 26 |
| 7 | Orenburg II | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | -4 | 26 |
| 8 | Izhevsk | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -2 | 23 |
| 9 | Ural II | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 | Rubin Kazan 2 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -10 | 20 |
| 11 | Nosta | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -28 | 18 |
| 12 | Chelyabinsk II | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -17 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Khimik Dzerzhinsk win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.