Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Krylya Sovetov II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.07 expected goals for Khimik Dzerzhinsk and 0.95 for Krylya Sovetov II, a combined total of 3.02. That distribution gives Khimik Dzerzhinsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Khimik Dzerzhinsk win

63.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.07 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Khimik Dzerzhinsk home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Krylya Sovetov II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Khimik Dzerzhinsk win63%

Draw20%

Krylya Sovetov II win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

2–010.5%
1–010.1%
2–19.9%
1–19.6%
3–07.2%

Recent form

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Akron II · 3-4 (L)
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod · 5-0 (W)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs KDV · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylya Sovetov II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Akron II · 1-2 (L)

Krylya Sovetov II

2026-09-27T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Barnaul · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Akron II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · A vs KDV · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3-1 Krylya Sovetov II (Second League - Group 4)
2026-09-27T08:00:00.000Z · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1-0 Krylya Sovetov II (Second League - Group 4)
2026-06-21T09:00:00.000Z · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2-0 Krylya Sovetov II (Second League - Group 4)
2026-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2-1 Krylya Sovetov II (Second League - Group 4)
2025-07-27T13:00:00.000Z · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1-0 Krylya Sovetov II (Second League - Group 4)
2025-04-20T10:00:00.000Z · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 0-0 Krylya Sovetov II (Second League - Group 4)

Second League - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	22	18	2	2	41	56
2	KDV	22	17	2	3	20	53
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	22	13	4	5	18	43
4	Akron II	22	10	2	10	12	32
5	Krylya Sovetov II	22	6	9	7	-1	27
6	Dinamo Barnaul	22	7	5	10	-19	26
7	Orenburg II	22	6	8	8	-4	26
8	Izhevsk	22	5	8	9	-2	23
9	Ural II	22	5	7	10	-10	22
10	Rubin Kazan 2	22	4	8	10	-10	20
11	Nosta	22	4	6	12	-28	18
12	Chelyabinsk II	22	4	5	13	-17	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Khimik Dzerzhinsk win, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.