Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Nosta Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Khimik Dzerzhinsk and 1.10 for Nosta, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Khimik Dzerzhinsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Khimik Dzerzhinsk win

49.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.62 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Khimik Dzerzhinsk home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nosta away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Khimik Dzerzhinsk win50%

Draw25%

Nosta win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–111.7%
1–010.6%
2–19.5%
2–08.6%
0–17.2%

Recent form

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Akron II · 3-4 (L)
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod · 5-0 (W)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs KDV · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylya Sovetov II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Akron II · 1-2 (L)

Nosta

2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelyabinsk II · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rubin Kazan 2 · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Ural II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Orenburg II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelyabinsk II · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-12T16:00:00.000Z · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2-3 Nosta (Cup)
2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 5-0 Nosta (Second League - Group 4)
2026-05-24T11:00:00.000Z · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1-0 Nosta (Second League - Group 4)
2025-08-10T12:00:00.000Z · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 5-2 Nosta (Second League - Group 4)
2025-05-04T13:00:00.000Z · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3-1 Nosta (Second League - Group 4)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Khimik Dzerzhinsk win, at 49.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.