Khimik Dzerzhinsk vs Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Khimik Dzerzhinsk and 1.05 for Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Khimik Dzerzhinsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Khimik Dzerzhinsk win

53.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Khimik Dzerzhinsk home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Khimik Dzerzhinsk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 24% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Khimik Dzerzhinsk and 1.05 for Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Khimik Dzerzhinsk win54%

Draw24%

Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–111.2%
1–010.6%
2–19.8%
2–09.3%
0–16.4%

Recent form

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Akron II · 3-4 (L)
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod · 5-0 (W)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs KDV · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylya Sovetov II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Akron II · 1-2 (L)

Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod

2026-09-25T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Barnaul · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs KDV · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylya Sovetov II · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Akron II · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second League - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	22	18	2	2	41	56
2	KDV	22	17	2	3	20	53
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	22	13	4	5	18	43
4	Akron II	22	10	2	10	12	32
5	Krylya Sovetov II	22	6	9	7	-1	27
6	Dinamo Barnaul	22	7	5	10	-19	26
7	Orenburg II	22	6	8	8	-4	26
8	Izhevsk	22	5	8	9	-2	23
9	Ural II	22	5	7	10	-10	22
10	Rubin Kazan 2	22	4	8	10	-10	20
11	Nosta	22	4	6	12	-28	18
12	Chelyabinsk II	22	4	5	13	-17	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Khimik Dzerzhinsk win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.