Khonkaen Stadium · Analysis updated 17:17 UTC
Khon Kaen United vs Nakhon Pathom Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.15 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Khon Kaen United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Khon Kaen United win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Khon Kaen United home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nakhon Pathom away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Khon Kaen United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 23% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.15 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–08.5%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Khon Kaen United
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Muang Loei United · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-21T11:00:00.000Z · H vs BG Pathum United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Esan Pattaya · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chainat · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Satun · 0-1 (L)
Nakhon Pathom
- 2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Uttaradit · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Uthai Thani · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nong Bua Pitchaya · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-14T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Chanthaburi · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Muangthong United · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khon Kaen United | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 2 | Uttaradit | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Nong Bua Pitchaya | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Satun | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Kanchanaburi | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Chainat | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Chiangmai United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Phrae United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Chanthaburi | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Police Tero | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Nakhon Pathom | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Muang Loei United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Muangthong United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Esan Pattaya | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | Songkhla | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | Mahasarakham United | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Kasetsart FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Khon Kaen United win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.