Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium · Referee Z. Al Nuaimi · Analysis updated 12:22 UTC
Khorfakkan vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 2.16 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
1.14 – 2.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Khorfakkan home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.1%
- 0–28.6%
- 0–18.0%
- 1–37.1%
Recent form
Khorfakkan
- 2026-10-24T12:55:00.000Z · H vs Al-Dhafra · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:05:00.000Z · H vs Al Wahda FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-08T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Wasl FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Jazira · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ittihad Kalba · 1-2 (L)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
- 2026-10-08T13:10:00.000Z · H vs Dubai United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasr · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hatta SC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tractor Sazi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T13:40:00.000Z · A vs Dubai United · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T16:45:00.000Z · Khorfakkan 1-5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Pro League)
- 2026-04-29T15:20:00.000Z · Khorfakkan 3-3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Pro League)
- 2026-02-01T13:15:00.000Z · Khorfakkan 1-3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Presidents Cup)
- 2025-11-20T15:30:00.000Z · Khorfakkan 0-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Pro League)
- 2025-04-23T16:45:00.000Z · Khorfakkan 0-4 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Pro League)
- 2024-12-08T12:45:00.000Z · Khorfakkan 1-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Pro League)
- 2024-03-01T13:35:00.000Z · Khorfakkan 0-3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Pro League)
- 2023-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · Khorfakkan 1-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Pro League)
- 2023-03-17T13:45:00.000Z · Khorfakkan 1-3 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Pro League)
- 2022-10-22T13:00:00.000Z · Khorfakkan 0-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (Pro League)
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Jazira | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 14 |
| 2 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Al-Wasl FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 |
| 4 | Al Ain | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Wahda FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sharjah FC | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Ajman | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Al Nasr | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Dubai United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 10 | Al-Dhafra | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 5 |
| 12 | Khorfakkan | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 13 | Hatta SC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 14 | Baniyas SC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.