· Analysis updated 23:50 UTC
Khosilot Farkhor vs Eskhata Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Khosilot Farkhor and 1.20 for Eskhata, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Khosilot Farkhor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Khosilot Farkhor win
55.9% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Khosilot Farkhor home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Eskhata away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Khosilot Farkhor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 22% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Khosilot Farkhor and 1.20 for Eskhata, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–08.2%
- 3–16.5%
Recent form
Khosilot Farkhor
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ravshan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Parvoz · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Istiqlol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Regar-TadAZ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sardor Tursunzoda · 3-3 (D)
Eskhata
- 2026-09-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Istaravshan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Pomir · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ravshan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Barki Tajik · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Khatlon · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Vysshaya Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Istiqlol | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 37 |
| 2 | Regar-TadAZ | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 37 |
| 3 | Khosilot Farkhor | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 34 |
| 4 | Barki Tajik | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 24 |
| 5 | CSKA Pomir | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 24 |
| 6 | Khujand | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | Ravshan | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Khatlon | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Eskhata | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -10 | 19 |
| 10 | Parvoz | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 15 |
| 11 | Sardor Tursunzoda | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Istaravshan | 17 | 0 | 6 | 11 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Khosilot Farkhor win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.