· Analysis updated 09:09 UTC
Khosilot Farkhor vs Istaravshan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Khosilot Farkhor and 0.74 for Istaravshan, a combined total of 3.74. That distribution gives Khosilot Farkhor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Khosilot Farkhor win
82.3% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Khosilot Farkhor home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Istaravshan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Khosilot Farkhor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 12% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Khosilot Farkhor and 0.74 for Istaravshan, a combined 3.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
18%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.7%
- 3–010.7%
- 4–08.0%
- 2–17.9%
- 3–17.9%
Recent form
Khosilot Farkhor
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ravshan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Parvoz · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Istiqlol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Regar-TadAZ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sardor Tursunzoda · 3-3 (D)
Istaravshan
- 2026-09-16T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Eskhata · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Barki Tajik · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Khatlon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Khujand · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Khosilot Farkhor · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Vysshaya Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Istiqlol | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 37 |
| 2 | Regar-TadAZ | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 37 |
| 3 | Khosilot Farkhor | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 34 |
| 4 | Barki Tajik | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 24 |
| 5 | CSKA Pomir | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 24 |
| 6 | Khujand | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | Ravshan | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Khatlon | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Eskhata | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -10 | 19 |
| 10 | Parvoz | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 15 |
| 11 | Sardor Tursunzoda | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Istaravshan | 17 | 0 | 6 | 11 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Khosilot Farkhor win, at 82.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.