Khosilot Farkhor vs Ravshan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Khosilot Farkhor and 0.88 for Ravshan, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Khosilot Farkhor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

73.6% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.22 – 0.88

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Khosilot Farkhor home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ravshan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Khosilot Farkhor win44%

Draw29%

Ravshan win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

1–015.0%
1–113.1%
0–012.2%
0–110.7%
2–09.2%

Recent form

Khosilot Farkhor

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ravshan · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Parvoz · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Istiqlol · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Regar-TadAZ · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sardor Tursunzoda · 3-3 (D)

Ravshan

2026-08-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eskhata · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Istiqlol · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barki Tajik · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-28T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Regar-TadAZ · 0-1 (L)
2026-06-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Khatlon · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · Khosilot Farkhor 1-0 Ravshan (Vysshaya Liga)
2025-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · Khosilot Farkhor 2-2 Ravshan (Vysshaya Liga)
2025-04-13T11:00:00.000Z · Khosilot Farkhor 1-2 Ravshan (Vysshaya Liga)
2024-10-27T10:00:00.000Z · Khosilot Farkhor 0-1 Ravshan (Vysshaya Liga)
2024-06-02T12:00:00.000Z · Khosilot Farkhor 0-0 Ravshan (Vysshaya Liga)
2023-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · Khosilot Farkhor 0-2 Ravshan (Vysshaya Liga)
2023-05-10T12:00:00.000Z · Khosilot Farkhor 1-1 Ravshan (Vysshaya Liga)
2016-10-23T11:00:00.000Z · Khosilot Farkhor 4-0 Ravshan (Vysshaya Liga)
2016-04-16T14:00:00.000Z · Khosilot Farkhor 2-0 Ravshan (Vysshaya Liga)
2012-10-28T10:00:00.000Z · Khosilot Farkhor 0-5 Ravshan (Vysshaya Liga)

Vysshaya Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Istiqlol	17	11	4	2	17	37
2	Regar-TadAZ	17	11	4	2	14	37
3	Khosilot Farkhor	17	10	4	3	17	34
4	Barki Tajik	16	7	3	6	1	24
5	CSKA Pomir	16	7	3	6	-2	24
6	Khujand	16	6	6	4	4	24
7	Ravshan	17	6	4	7	4	22
8	Khatlon	17	4	8	5	0	20
9	Eskhata	17	5	4	8	-10	19
10	Parvoz	17	4	3	10	-17	15
11	Sardor Tursunzoda	16	2	5	9	-8	11
12	Istaravshan	17	0	6	11	-20	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.