· Analysis updated 07:10 UTC
Khovd vs Central Stallions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Khovd and 3.11 for Central Stallions, a combined total of 5.46. That distribution gives Central Stallions the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 86% for both teams to score, with 2–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Central Stallions win
53.9% probability
Expected goals
2.35 – 3.11
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Khovd home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Central Stallions away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–35.9%
- 2–25.7%
- 1–35.0%
- 1–24.8%
- 3–34.6%
Recent form
Khovd
- 2026-09-21T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Stallions · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Khovd Western · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-07-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Khoromkhon · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-06-28T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Ulaangom City · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-06-25T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Hunters · 1-6 (L)
Central Stallions
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulaangom City · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Khovd · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Hunters · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Amtat FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Tainan City · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-21T05:00:00.000Z · Khovd 0-6 Central Stallions (Premier League)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · Khovd 0-9 Central Stallions (Premier League)
- 2025-09-28T07:00:00.000Z · Khovd 2-4 Central Stallions (Premier League)
- 2025-06-18T08:15:00.000Z · Khovd 5-2 Central Stallions (Premier League)
- 2025-03-23T05:15:00.000Z · Khovd 4-2 Central Stallions (Premier League)
- 2024-08-23T11:15:00.000Z · Khovd 7-0 Central Stallions (Premier League)
- 2024-06-21T11:15:00.000Z · Khovd 0-9 Central Stallions (Premier League)
- 2024-04-20T11:15:00.000Z · Khovd 0-3 Central Stallions (Premier League)
- 2023-10-22T10:00:00.000Z · Khovd 2-7 Central Stallions (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Stallions | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 21 |
| 2 | Ulaanbaatar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 19 |
| 3 | Deren | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 17 |
| 4 | Khovd | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 |
| 5 | Hunters | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Erchim | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -15 | 6 |
| 7 | Khovd Western | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -22 | 3 |
| 8 | Amtat FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -26 | 3 |
| 9 | Ulaangom City | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Central Stallions win, at 53.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 86% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.