· Analysis updated 17:01 UTC
Khovd vs Khangarid Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Khovd and 3.63 for Khangarid, a combined total of 5.25. That distribution gives Khangarid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Khangarid win
74.1% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 3.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Khovd home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Khangarid away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Khangarid to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 13% / 13% / 74% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Khovd and 3.63 for Khangarid, a combined 5.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
26%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–36.8%
- 1–46.1%
- 1–25.6%
- 2–35.5%
- 2–45.0%
Recent form
Khovd
- 2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Erchim · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-15T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Hunters · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Amtat FC · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Deren · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-30T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulaanbaatar · 0-4 (L)
Khangarid
- 2026-07-06T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Stallions · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulaanbaatar · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-06-30T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Deren · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Stallions · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ulaanbaatar · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ulaanbaatar | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 25 |
| 2 | Central Stallions | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 21 |
| 3 | Deren | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Hunters | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 15 |
| 5 | Khovd | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Erchim | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -18 | 9 |
| 7 | Amtat FC | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -23 | 9 |
| 8 | Khovd Western | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -23 | 6 |
| 9 | Ulaangom City | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -24 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Khangarid win, at 74.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.