· Analysis updated 09:52 UTC
Khovd vs Ulaanbaatar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.01 expected goals for Khovd and 3.69 for Ulaanbaatar, a combined total of 5.71. That distribution gives Ulaanbaatar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 91% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 2–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ulaanbaatar win
68.4% probability
Expected goals
2.01 – 3.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Khovd home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ulaanbaatar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
32%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–35.7%
- 1–35.6%
- 2–45.2%
- 1–45.2%
- 2–24.6%
Recent form
Khovd
- 2026-09-21T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Stallions · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Khovd Western · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-07-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Khoromkhon · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-06-28T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Ulaangom City · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-06-25T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Hunters · 1-6 (L)
Ulaanbaatar
- 2026-08-11T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Hang Yuen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-06T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Deren · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Khangarid · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-06-30T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Stallions · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-27T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Deren · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T07:00:00.000Z · Khovd 1-4 Ulaanbaatar (Premier League)
- 2025-09-21T02:00:00.000Z · Khovd 0-4 Ulaanbaatar (Premier League)
- 2025-07-06T08:15:00.000Z · Khovd 3-3 Ulaanbaatar (Premier League)
- 2025-04-17T05:15:00.000Z · Khovd 3-4 Ulaanbaatar (Premier League)
- 2024-09-29T11:15:00.000Z · Khovd 3-3 Ulaanbaatar (Premier League)
- 2024-05-31T11:15:00.000Z · Khovd 3-6 Ulaanbaatar (Premier League)
- 2024-04-13T11:15:00.000Z · Khovd 1-9 Ulaanbaatar (Premier League)
- 2023-09-28T11:00:00.000Z · Khovd 0-2 Ulaanbaatar (Premier League)
- 2023-05-17T02:00:00.000Z · Khovd 0-2 Ulaanbaatar (Premier League)
- 2023-04-01T07:00:00.000Z · Khovd 0-2 Ulaanbaatar (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Stallions | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 21 |
| 2 | Ulaanbaatar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 19 |
| 3 | Deren | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 17 |
| 4 | Khovd | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 |
| 5 | Hunters | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Erchim | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -15 | 6 |
| 7 | Khovd Western | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -22 | 3 |
| 8 | Amtat FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -26 | 3 |
| 9 | Ulaangom City | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ulaanbaatar win, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 91%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.