· Analysis updated 18:05 UTC
Khovd Western vs Deren Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Khovd Western and 4.15 for Deren, a combined total of 5.74. That distribution gives Deren the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–4 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deren win
80.3% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 4.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Khovd Western home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deren to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 10% / 10% / 80% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Khovd Western and 4.15 for Deren, a combined 5.74 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 90% and both teams to score at 76%, with 1–4 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
20%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–46.3%
- 1–36.1%
- 1–55.2%
- 2–45.0%
- 2–34.8%
Recent form
Khovd Western
- 2026-10-04T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Stallions · 4-8 (L)
- 2026-10-01T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Deren · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-21T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Erchim · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulaangom City · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Khovd · 0-4 (L)
Deren
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Stallions | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 21 |
| 2 | Ulaanbaatar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 19 |
| 3 | Deren | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 17 |
| 4 | Khovd | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 |
| 5 | Hunters | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Erchim | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -15 | 6 |
| 7 | Khovd Western | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -22 | 3 |
| 8 | Amtat FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -26 | 3 |
| 9 | Ulaangom City | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deren win, at 80.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–4.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.