· Analysis updated 19:00 UTC
Khovd Western vs Ulaangom City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.93 expected goals for Khovd Western and 1.78 for Ulaangom City, a combined total of 4.70. That distribution gives Khovd Western the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Khovd Western win
61.3% probability
Expected goals
2.93 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Khovd Western home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ulaangom City away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Khovd Western to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 17% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.93 goals for Khovd Western and 1.78 for Ulaangom City, a combined 4.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–16.9%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–26.1%
- 3–26.0%
- 4–14.9%
Recent form
Khovd Western
- 2026-10-04T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Stallions · 4-8 (L)
- 2026-10-01T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Deren · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-21T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Erchim · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulaangom City · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Khovd · 0-4 (L)
Ulaangom City
- 2026-09-30T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Hunters · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Stallions · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Deren · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-16T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Khovd Western · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Erchim · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-16T08:00:00.000Z · Khovd Western 4-1 Ulaangom City (Premier League)
- 2026-07-01T08:00:00.000Z · Khovd Western 2-3 Ulaangom City (Premier League)
- 2026-06-13T07:00:00.000Z · Khovd Western 0-0 Ulaangom City (Premier League)
- 2025-10-29T04:00:00.000Z · Khovd Western 6-0 Ulaangom City (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ulaanbaatar | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 25 |
| 2 | Central Stallions | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 21 |
| 3 | Deren | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Hunters | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 15 |
| 5 | Khovd | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Erchim | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -18 | 9 |
| 7 | Amtat FC | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -23 | 9 |
| 8 | Khovd Western | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -23 | 6 |
| 9 | Ulaangom City | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -24 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Khovd Western win, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.