Khujand vs CSKA Pomir Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Khujand and 0.69 for CSKA Pomir, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Khujand the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Khujand win

45.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.12 – 0.69

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Khujand home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Khujand to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 32% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Khujand and 0.69 for CSKA Pomir, a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 27% and both teams to score at 34%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.

Match result (1X2)

Khujand win46%

Draw32%

CSKA Pomir win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals54%

Over 2.5 goals27%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score34%

Correct score

1–018.4%
0–016.5%
1–112.6%
0–111.3%
2–010.2%

Recent form

Khujand

2026-09-15T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Istiqlol · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-08T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Regar-TadAZ · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Istaravshan · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-01T12:15:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Pomir · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Eskhata · 1-0 (W)

CSKA Pomir

2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ravshan · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eskhata · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Khatlon · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Khujand · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Khosilot Farkhor · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Vysshaya Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Istiqlol	17	11	4	2	17	37
2	Regar-TadAZ	17	11	4	2	14	37
3	Khosilot Farkhor	17	10	4	3	17	34
4	Barki Tajik	16	7	3	6	1	24
5	CSKA Pomir	16	7	3	6	-2	24
6	Khujand	16	6	6	4	4	24
7	Ravshan	17	6	4	7	4	22
8	Khatlon	17	4	8	5	0	20
9	Eskhata	17	5	4	8	-10	19
10	Parvoz	17	4	3	10	-17	15
11	Sardor Tursunzoda	16	2	5	9	-8	11
12	Istaravshan	17	0	6	11	-20	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Khujand win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.