Djúpumýra · Referee Samuel Barrott, England · Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
KI Klaksvik vs Riga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for KI Klaksvik and 1.62 for Riga, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Riga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Riga win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.62
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
KI Klaksvik home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Riga away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Riga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 30% / 24% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for KI Klaksvik and 1.62 for Riga, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–17.3%
- 0–27.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.48 | 64.2% | 67.0% | 1.49 | +2.8 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.25 | 40.8% | 42.1% | 2.38 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Home | 3.20 | 29.2% | 30.3% | 3.30 | +1.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.15 | 43.7% | 44.6% | 2.24 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.73 | 53.8% | 54.7% | 1.83 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 2.06 | 45.3% | 45.4% | 2.20 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.33 | 70.0% | 69.8% | 1.43 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.3% | 75.7% | 1.32 | -0.6 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.67 | 56.3% | 55.4% | 1.81 | -0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.65 | 25.6% | 24.4% | 4.10 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 59.2% | 57.9% | 1.73 | -1.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.65 | 35.8% | 33.0% | 3.03 | -2.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
KI Klaksvik
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Skála · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:15:00.000Z · A vs 07 Vestur · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Vikingur Gota · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T17:30:00.000Z · H vs EB / Streymur · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Riga · 1-2 (L)
Riga
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Kairat Almaty · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FS Jelgava · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Super Nova · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-27T17:00:00.000Z · KI Klaksvik 1-2 Riga (UEFA Europa Conference League)
- 2026-08-20T17:30:00.000Z · KI Klaksvik 0-0 Riga (UEFA Europa Conference League)
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | FC Copenhagen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Mjallby AIF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | St. Truiden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | FC Lugano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Monaco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | HNK Hajduk Split | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Panathinaikos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Brann | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Gent | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Twente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Kairat Almaty | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Heart Of Midlothian | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Universitatea Craiova | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 22 | Riga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 | FK Jablonec | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Ajax | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Borac Banja Luka | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | Aarhus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 30 | FC Thun | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 31 | KuPS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Pafos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 33 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 34 | FC Iberia 1999 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 35 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Riga win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.