Kibera Black Stars vs Nairobi City Stars Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Kibera Black Stars and 0.91 for Nairobi City Stars, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Kibera Black Stars the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kibera Black Stars win

49.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.44 – 0.91

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kibera Black Stars home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nairobi City Stars away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kibera Black Stars to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 27% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Kibera Black Stars and 0.91 for Nairobi City Stars, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Kibera Black Stars win49%

Draw27%

Nairobi City Stars win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–013.7%
1–112.5%
2–09.9%
0–09.5%
2–19.0%

Recent form

Kibera Black Stars

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nzoia Sugar · 0-1 (L)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs MCF · 1-2 (L)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs MOFA · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Nairobi City Stars · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-23T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Migori Youth · 0-1 (L)

Nairobi City Stars

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Darajani Gogo · 0-3 (L)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Talanta · 1-5 (L)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kabati Youth FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kibera Black Stars · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs MCF · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sofapaka	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Nairobi City Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Kariobangi Sharks	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Nzoia Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Naivas	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Kibera Black Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Talanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Kisumu All Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Fortune Sacco	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Soy United	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Equity Bank	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Luanda Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	MOFA	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Kibera Soccer	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Kabati Youth FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Gucha Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Mfalme	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Kiminini Combined	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	BB FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Spitfire FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kibera Black Stars win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.