Kickers Offenbach vs SGV Freiberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Kickers Offenbach and 1.90 for SGV Freiberg, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives SGV Freiberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

SGV Freiberg win

47.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.47 – 1.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Kickers Offenbach home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SGV Freiberg away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SGV Freiberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 30% / 22% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Kickers Offenbach and 1.90 for SGV Freiberg, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Kickers Offenbach win30%

Draw22%

SGV Freiberg win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.6%
1–29.1%
2–17.1%
2–26.7%
0–16.5%

Recent form

Kickers Offenbach

2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC 08 Homburg · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgarter Kickers · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs VfR Aalen · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Trier · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hessen Kassel · 1-2 (L)

SGV Freiberg

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Freiburg II · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs TSV Steinbach · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgarter Kickers · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs VfR Aalen · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 II · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - SudWest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SGV Freiberg	12	7	5	0	19	26
2	VfR Aalen	12	7	3	2	11	24
3	VfR Mannheim	12	6	5	1	11	23
4	Stuttgarter Kickers	12	7	2	3	6	23
5	Kickers Offenbach	12	6	2	4	6	20
6	FC 08 Homburg	12	5	4	3	1	19
7	SV Sandhausen	12	5	4	3	-1	19
8	Eintracht Trier	12	6	1	5	-3	19
9	Freiburg II	11	4	4	3	5	16
10	TSV Steinbach	12	4	4	4	2	16
11	Hessen Kassel	12	4	2	6	-4	14
12	FSV Frankfurt	12	3	4	5	-2	13
13	Eintracht Frankfurt II	11	4	1	6	-2	13
14	FSV Mainz 05 II	12	3	2	7	-11	11
15	FC Astoria Walldorf	12	2	4	6	-5	10
16	Kaiserslautern II	12	2	4	6	-13	10
17	SSV Ulm 1846	12	1	6	5	-7	9
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	12	1	3	8	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SGV Freiberg win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.