Bieberer Berg Stadion · Analysis updated 16:00 UTC
Kickers Offenbach vs VfR Aalen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Kickers Offenbach and 1.33 for VfR Aalen, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Kickers Offenbach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kickers Offenbach win
46.9% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kickers Offenbach home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
VfR Aalen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.2%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–07.0%
Recent form
Kickers Offenbach
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC 08 Homburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgarter Kickers · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs VfR Aalen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Trier · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hessen Kassel · 1-2 (L)
VfR Aalen
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Frankfurt · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kickers Offenbach · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SGV Freiberg · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs VfR Mannheim · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2023-11-24T18:00:00.000Z · Kickers Offenbach 1-0 VfR Aalen (Regionalliga - SudWest)
- 2023-08-11T17:00:00.000Z · Kickers Offenbach 1-2 VfR Aalen (Regionalliga - SudWest)
- 2023-03-18T13:00:00.000Z · Kickers Offenbach 0-2 VfR Aalen (Regionalliga - SudWest)
- 2022-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · Kickers Offenbach 3-1 VfR Aalen (Regionalliga - SudWest)
- 2022-04-10T12:00:00.000Z · Kickers Offenbach 2-0 VfR Aalen (Regionalliga - SudWest)
- 2021-10-22T17:00:00.000Z · Kickers Offenbach 4-0 VfR Aalen (Regionalliga - SudWest)
- 2021-06-05T12:00:00.000Z · Kickers Offenbach 2-0 VfR Aalen (Regionalliga - SudWest)
- 2020-12-19T13:00:00.000Z · Kickers Offenbach 0-2 VfR Aalen (Regionalliga - SudWest)
- 2020-02-15T13:00:00.000Z · Kickers Offenbach 0-3 VfR Aalen (Regionalliga - SudWest)
- 2019-08-09T17:30:00.000Z · Kickers Offenbach 1-1 VfR Aalen (Regionalliga - SudWest)
Regionalliga - SudWest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SGV Freiberg | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 19 | 27 |
| 2 | VfR Aalen | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 27 |
| 3 | VfR Mannheim | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 26 |
| 4 | Stuttgarter Kickers | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | Eintracht Trier | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 6 | Kickers Offenbach | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | FC 08 Homburg | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 8 | SV Sandhausen | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Freiburg II | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 10 | TSV Steinbach | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Eintracht Frankfurt II | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Hessen Kassel | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 | FC Astoria Walldorf | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | FSV Frankfurt | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Kaiserslautern II | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 | FSV Mainz 05 II | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 11 |
| 17 | SSV Ulm 1846 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 18 | Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kickers Offenbach win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.