Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium · Referee Vassilis Fotias, Greece · Analysis updated 13:53 UTC
Kifisia vs AEK Athens FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.71 expected goals for Kifisia and 2.24 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives AEK Athens FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AEK Athens FC win
72.2% probability
Expected goals
0.71 – 2.24
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kifisia home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
AEK Athens FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AEK Athens FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 10% / 18% / 72% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.71 goals for Kifisia and 2.24 for AEK Athens FC, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
28%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.1%
- 0–111.7%
- 0–39.8%
- 1–29.3%
- 1–18.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.45 | 64.4% | 65.9% | 1.52 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Home | 10.00 | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.71 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.28 | 71.7% | 72.2% | 1.39 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.15 | 43.4% | 43.5% | 2.30 | +0.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.67 | 54.5% | 54.6% | 1.83 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.65 | 56.6% | 56.5% | 1.77 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 45.5% | 45.4% | 2.20 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.62 | 35.6% | 34.1% | 2.93 | -1.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.80 | 19.1% | 17.5% | 5.71 | -1.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Kifisia
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atromitos · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Panathinaikos · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Levadiakos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Panathinaikos · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs OFI · 0-2 (L)
AEK Athens FC
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Volos NFC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Panserraikos · 8-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Asteras Tripolis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Lask Linz · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Thessalonikis · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Athens FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 14 |
| 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | PAOK | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 10 |
| 6 | OFI | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Iraklis 1908 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Panetolikos | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Kifisia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Asteras Tripolis | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Kalamata | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 13 | Levadiakos | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AEK Athens FC win, at 72.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.