Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Entebbe UPPC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.37 expected goals for Kigezi HomeBoyz and 1.15 for Entebbe UPPC, a combined total of 1.52. That distribution gives Entebbe UPPC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 21% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 25%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Entebbe UPPC win

55.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.37 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Entebbe UPPC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Entebbe UPPC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 12% / 32% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.37 goals for Kigezi HomeBoyz and 1.15 for Entebbe UPPC, a combined 1.52 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 20% and both teams to score at 21%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 25%.

Match result (1X2)

Kigezi HomeBoyz win12%

Draw32%

Entebbe UPPC win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

88%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals45%

Over 2.5 goals20%

Over 3.5 goals7%

Both teams to score21%

Correct score

0–125.1%
0–021.8%
0–214.5%
1–19.3%
1–08.1%

Recent form

Kigezi HomeBoyz

2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitara · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Villa · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KCCA · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lugazi · 1-2 (L)

Entebbe UPPC

2026-10-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kigezi HomeBoyz · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs URA · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Police · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mbarara City · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lugazi · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	BUL	7	6	1	0	11	19
2	SC Villa	7	5	2	0	13	17
3	NEC	7	4	2	1	8	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	7	4	2	1	5	14
5	Blacks Power	7	4	0	3	-2	12
6	Vipers	6	3	2	1	11	11
7	Maroons	7	3	1	3	5	10
8	KCCA	6	3	1	2	0	10
9	Kitara	4	2	2	0	2	8
10	UPDF	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Lugazi	7	2	2	3	-5	8
12	Police	7	2	2	3	-6	8
13	Express	7	1	3	3	-2	6
14	Mbarara City	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	URA	6	1	1	4	-5	4
16	Ntugasaze	6	1	0	5	-10	3
17	Kataka	7	0	2	5	-13	2
18	Kigezi HomeBoyz	6	0	1	5	-8	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Entebbe UPPC win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 21% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.