· Analysis updated 11:48 UTC
Kigezi HomeBoyz vs Mbarara City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.57 expected goals for Kigezi HomeBoyz and 0.75 for Mbarara City, a combined total of 1.32. That distribution gives Mbarara City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 39%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 15% for over 2.5 goals and 23% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 27%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.2% probability
Expected goals
0.57 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Mbarara City away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 25% / 39% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.57 goals for Kigezi HomeBoyz and 0.75 for Mbarara City, a combined 1.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 15% and both teams to score at 23%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 27%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
61%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–026.7%
- 0–120.0%
- 1–015.2%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–27.5%
Recent form
Kigezi HomeBoyz
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Villa · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KCCA · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lugazi · 1-2 (L)
Mbarara City
- 2026-10-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Villa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Blacks Power · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ntugasaze · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Entebbe UPPC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | SC Villa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 17 |
| 3 | NEC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Blacks Power | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 6 | Vipers | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 11 |
| 7 | Maroons | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | KCCA | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Kitara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | UPDF | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Lugazi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Police | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 | Express | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | URA | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Ntugasaze | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 | Kataka | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
| 18 | Kigezi HomeBoyz | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 23% and over 2.5 goals at 15%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.