· Analysis updated 13:12 UTC
Kika vs KF Lepenci Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Kika and 1.05 for KF Lepenci, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives KF Lepenci the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
74.3% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kika home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
KF Lepenci away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates KF Lepenci to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 26% / 32% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Kika and 1.05 for KF Lepenci, a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.4%
- 0–016.5%
- 1–113.0%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–29.1%
Recent form
Kika
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Suhareka · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tefik Canga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KF Lepenci · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rilindja 1974 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trepça Mitrovicë · 0-0 (D)
KF Lepenci
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tefik Canga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rilindja 1974 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kika · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Trepça Mitrovicë · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Ferizaj · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga E Pare table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prishtina e Re | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Liria Prizren | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 3 | Rilindja 1974 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Trepça'89 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Ferizaj | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 19 |
| 6 | Dinamo Ferizaj | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 7 | Suhareka | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 8 | Istogu | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 9 | 2 Korriku | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 | Vjosa | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Vëllaznimi | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 12 | FC Besa Peja | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 13 | Trepça Mitrovicë | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 11 |
| 14 | Ramiz Sadiku | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | KF Lepenci | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Kika | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -9 | 9 |
| 17 | Tefik Canga | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Mitrovica | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 74.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.