· Analysis updated 16:36 UTC
Kilkisiakos vs Mpam Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Kilkisiakos and 2.38 for Mpam, a combined total of 4.17. That distribution gives Mpam the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mpam win
51.1% probability
Expected goals
1.79 – 2.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mpam to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 29% / 20% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.79 goals for Kilkisiakos and 2.38 for Mpam, a combined 4.17 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 79% and both teams to score at 76%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 51% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.8%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–16.6%
- 1–36.2%
- 2–15.9%
Recent form
Kilkisiakos
Mpam
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panedessaikos · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Finikas Polichnis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | Poseidon Nea Michaniona | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Agiou Nikolaou | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Mpam | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Iraklis Therm. | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Makedonikos Neapolis | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | Polykastrou | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Akrites Sykeon | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 9 | Kilkisiakos | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 10 | Panedessaikos | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 11 | PAO Kristoni | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mpam win, at 51.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.