The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Referee Duncan Nicolson, Scotland · Analysis updated 11:56 UTC
Kilmarnock vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Kilmarnock and 2.35 for Heart Of Midlothian, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Heart Of Midlothian the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Heart Of Midlothian win
70.8% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 2.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kilmarnock home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Heart Of Midlothian away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
29%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.3%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–38.8%
- 1–18.1%
Recent form
Kilmarnock
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rangers · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hibernian · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aberdeen · 0-0 (D)
Heart Of Midlothian
- 2026-10-22T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Trabzonspor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Nordsjaelland · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs ST Mirren · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · Kilmarnock 1-1 Heart Of Midlothian (Premiership)
- 2026-03-14T20:00:00.000Z · Kilmarnock 1-0 Heart Of Midlothian (Premiership)
- 2025-12-03T19:45:00.000Z · Kilmarnock 1-1 Heart Of Midlothian (Premiership)
- 2025-10-18T16:45:00.000Z · Kilmarnock 0-3 Heart Of Midlothian (Premiership)
- 2025-05-18T14:00:00.000Z · Kilmarnock 0-1 Heart Of Midlothian (Premiership)
- 2025-01-25T15:00:00.000Z · Kilmarnock 2-3 Heart Of Midlothian (Premiership)
- 2024-12-15T15:00:00.000Z · Kilmarnock 1-0 Heart Of Midlothian (Premiership)
- 2024-10-30T19:45:00.000Z · Kilmarnock 2-1 Heart Of Midlothian (Premiership)
- 2024-04-27T14:00:00.000Z · Kilmarnock 0-0 Heart Of Midlothian (Premiership)
- 2024-03-30T15:00:00.000Z · Kilmarnock 1-1 Heart Of Midlothian (Premiership)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 24 |
| 2 | Rangers | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 23 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Dundee Utd | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 5 | Dundee | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | ST Mirren | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 13 |
| 7 | Falkirk | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | ST Johnstone | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Aberdeen | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Motherwell | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 8 |
| 12 | Hibernian | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Heart Of Midlothian win, at 70.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.